Migration Narratives in Northern Central America: How Competing Stories Shape Policy and Public Opinion in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador
Soto, Ariel G Ruiz, Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, and Aaron Clark-Ginsberg. “Migration Narratives in Northern Central America: How Competing Stories Shape Policy and Public Opinion in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.” Migration Policy Institute, June 2023. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/CentAm-MigrationNarratives-2023_final.pdf.
The ways in which migration is woven into the fabric of northern Central American societies are both complex and changing. El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras are most commonly thought of as countries of emigration: nearly 3.2 million nationals of these three countries (10 percent of their combined population) were living in the United States as of 2019, and global remittance flows made up roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of each country’s GDP in 2021. These Central Americans’ movements have been driven by an interconnected web of factors, including uneven economic growth, political instability, violence, and increasingly, natural disasters exacerbated by climate change. Irregular migration has reached record highs across the region, instigating political crises in some places and drawing pressure from the United States and Mexico to double down on enforcement. Opportunities for Central Americans to move abroad through regular migration channels are scarce, but as policymakers increasingly frame migration management as a regional responsibility, there has been talk of expanding them, particularly for temporary work. At the same time, migrants from South America and the Caribbean (including Haitians and Venezuelans) have begun to cross through Central America in greater numbers, and more former emigrants are returning. These trends have created new challenges for countries with unevenly developed systems to conduct immigration enforcement, provide humanitarian protection, and reintegrate their own nationals. A complex set of interconnected, yet sometimes contradictory, narratives has developed to explain what drives these diverse movements and how to best manage them. This study presents the findings of research conducted by the Migration Policy Institute, RAND Corporation, Metropolitan Group, and National Immigration Forum, which compared salient migration narratives within El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—as well as a selection of migration narratives from Mexico and the United States that relate to Central America—over the 2018–22 period. The research strives to better understand narrative patterns and contradictions and how the stories told along the entire migration continuum—from predeparture to transit to emigration to return—interact with policy. The study examined more than 200 documents (including government policy documents, local and national media articles, and reports by international and nongovernmental organizations), supplemented with relevant background literature, public opinion polling, and data on migration trends.